TEOTWAWKI?

I'm reading "The long decline" by John Greer.
An older essay is here:
http://www.oilcrisis.com/whatToDo/decline.htm

For me it has always been a certainty that an unsustainable economy, an unsustainable dependence upon fossil fuels to run our economy will run our economy into ruin. That's simple trends, but what will it look like?

Seeing the financial debt that is being tacked onto our unsustainable economy shows me one way this will occur. Banking bailouts and government borrowing to keep our economy going is horrid, but shows perhaps how illusionary wealth is destroyed.

Greer's theory of "Catabolic collapse" suggests how we get from where we are to where we need to be - using a lot less energy and resources than we're used to. He says crises knock us down, pruning out the most wasteful aspects of the economy until we find a new temporary equilibrium at a lower overall standard of living.

I have to imagine what's happening now is a part of that process, even if you can blame greed and excess of capitalism itself (and government policy too as you like), it's all sliding along into a lower overall "real economy" hidden behind our illusionary wealth.

Economic contraction is an interesting effect, as observed objectively, without personal costs. As an environmentalist, I think we need to use less fossil fuels, both for pollution effects, and depletion effects. If it wasn't for the inefficencies of restructuring a failing economy, we'd still be trying to shoot the moon for more energy consumption.

I took a trip to Mexico a year ago, and flying back I realized how easy it would be to "get used" the idea that flying thousands of miles in a few hours was normal. Today I ran a race with a friend from Colorado, and he invited me to visit him there. I imagined I could do it in a 3-4 day weekend! I'm sure it would be a memorable trip, hiking in the mountains and all! At the moment I could afford it quite well, so if I decide on price, perhaps I would go!

Perhaps, if I do, it'll be the last fight I'll ever take. Perhaps I really could appreciate this age of "miracles and wonders" that allows this travel. I've been in Colorado once before, a 10-day road trip in 1992. I sort of prefer that sort of trip, and think a 3-day weekend is rather extravagant, not enough time to really relax and explore and everything!

So, anyway, as long as a majority of people think air travel for vacation is "normal", and commuting an hour a day by car is "normal", we live in a world that I don't believe can exist in the future, or at least the minority that will live this way must decline.

That's my biggest question - if the decline happens by holding 1% on the top at their level of consumption, and the middle class slide away into relative poverty. I think whatever level people are at, wealth comes from spending less than you earn, but spending so easily becomes "nonnegociable", so it's all scary to me.

If you could jump forward 20 years you might be horrified to see what life is like for most people, but to them it'll be normal. That's the power and weakness of perspective. The future looks scary for the shock of change.

I think of seeing movies about the primitive tribes, doing their dances around the fire, and all. It was so foreign, I couldn't imagine being a part. But if I look at my life now, perhaps it is shocking from the outside, my isolation and dependence upon a crazy economy for it all.

And within all these "adjustments", there's room for new opportunity as well, as we have choices that move us in the right direction, or avoid making the hard choices.

The End Of The World As We Know It?

Eventually, but the world we know isn't normal!