Global peak energy: Implications for future human populations

A thought provoking article at:
http://www.energybulletin.net/34120.html

I basically believe the correlation of population and energy availability is a sound one, at least when dealing with fossil fuels. Even if a "minority" (on top) are having too much fun to have children, "successful" capitalism always leads to a wide underclass who will benefit from the system just enough (reasonably fed), that they'll make having babies their primary satisfaction of life.

So this article above suggests optimistic and conservative energy estimates for the next 100 years and projects optimistic to conservative population levels of the world to fall between 1-3 billion people in the next century. (While world population levels are expected to peak (god willing) around 9 billion in the next some 40 years.)

How will this transition happen? How does a world of 6.5 billion going on 9 billion fall to 3 billion? War, disease, starvation? How does life look "from the top" to see the creation of humanity crumble on the the weight of our success? How will we ride this collapse?

Some will say the U.S. only has 5% of the world's population, and certainly Europe looks in more danger of "immigrant overrun" without water barriers, but at least in the U.S. the Mexican border seems a prime place with such a large gradient of poverty and prosperity.

My more northern, contiental climate of Minnesota, still lots of open land for farming, seems a safer one, if I can figure out how to heat my home in the winter, AND perhaps we'll keep our 10,000 lakes and avoid the worst droughts, perhaps we'll do ok. Seriously, I can imagine complacency, not because things are not going to get worse, but just because there's less immediat threats to us, again however we can deal with less easy cheap energy. But the world is an island, and we'll all go down, unless we can help each other, help those in other places who need more than we do.

Happy thoughts, always good to believe we not only will do okay ourselves, but have something extra to give, but I don't really know. There's no evidence to me that civilization can run without cheap coal, natural gas, and oil, or that our recovered forest lands will stay that way if "renewable energy" is needed to run our economy and heat our homes.

Basically I think we're in a special transition time, where if we prepare, conserving what we have, and building infrastructure that will transition us towards a local economy, we can have something to build from in the future when things turn darker. But prosperity is an easy vice to live with, and the slower the decline, the easier we can fall without ever seeing the need to prepare soon enough.

It is fun to read quotes, like some Chinese plans to take over the world empire role as the soft U.S. falls into decline. Perhaps they have the resolve and resources to act? It would seem more bleak to me over all - all the environmental harm being inflicted there. I believe just like the U.S.S.R. fell, the U.S. can fall, and so can Communistic China as well, if capitalism fails the people. The mobs can get mean, and irrationally finish destroying what sustains them.