State of the Union
I'm a sad sad pessimist that the future will offer anything short of disaster. I offer such an assessment because it seems nothing short of disaster can send us on a different path - i.e. kicking and screaming every step of the way.
Still there are moments of pretend hope - like Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" on Global Warming and CO2 emissions, or President Bush's 2007 State of the Union speech where he calls for a 20% reduction in gasoline use in the U.S. in 10 years.
On the level of probable reality, we'll be FORCED to cut more than that by 2017, whether geology, politics, or world demand, or some combination, but as far as business-as-usual, there's no evidence we'd be cutting consumption at all except by expectations we'll be forced to. That is to say it is pie-in-the-sky to imagine any sort of voluntary effort can do anything but slow the rate of growth, and if oil was still at $15-$25/bbl, Bush wouldn't even be talking about it.
Still, you gotta have some tiny hope a direction has been changed, just a bit. Somehow I disbelieve ethanol from whatever source is going to septuple our current strained production from corn. I mean strained in the sense of modern farming being unviable without fossil fuel based fertilizers and production, even if it can reduce oil in exchange for NG and coal sources.
I'm perhaps foolishly optimistic that electrical production is the fastest substitute for gasoline fuel - plug-in hybrids recharged overnight when electricity demand is smallest, and stored in limited range batteries, but perhaps covering a fair fraction of energy use needed for city driving anyway. I'm only hopeful in the known-technology level, not ignoring the fact that probably overall it'll cost more than now taking the costs people now expect for new cars.
Still I admit when transportation and electicity intersect more, there'll be an increase in electricity rates, and a strain on that system, and some areas might be able to grow electricity fast enough to keep up. AND worse, coal is still cheapest when ignoring environmental costs.
My optimism lasts on a hope that energy prices will keep going up sooner than later and this will force conservation and restructuring and technology to deal with it.
If energy was our ONLY coming crisis, I'd say we'd have a fair shot to get through it. But when you add numerous parallel crises - global warming - natural disasters intensified by climate change - political instability due to high costs - unsustainable debt, the whole world economy is a house of cards ready to fall - so back to pessimism!
So I'll be hopeful for Bush's little steps, but personally I'll just keep trying to pay my debt down (mortgage) sooner than later, and count my blessings as I have many.
Necessity is the mother of invention and we have a motherlode to face!
Still there are moments of pretend hope - like Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" on Global Warming and CO2 emissions, or President Bush's 2007 State of the Union speech where he calls for a 20% reduction in gasoline use in the U.S. in 10 years.
On the level of probable reality, we'll be FORCED to cut more than that by 2017, whether geology, politics, or world demand, or some combination, but as far as business-as-usual, there's no evidence we'd be cutting consumption at all except by expectations we'll be forced to. That is to say it is pie-in-the-sky to imagine any sort of voluntary effort can do anything but slow the rate of growth, and if oil was still at $15-$25/bbl, Bush wouldn't even be talking about it.
Still, you gotta have some tiny hope a direction has been changed, just a bit. Somehow I disbelieve ethanol from whatever source is going to septuple our current strained production from corn. I mean strained in the sense of modern farming being unviable without fossil fuel based fertilizers and production, even if it can reduce oil in exchange for NG and coal sources.
I'm perhaps foolishly optimistic that electrical production is the fastest substitute for gasoline fuel - plug-in hybrids recharged overnight when electricity demand is smallest, and stored in limited range batteries, but perhaps covering a fair fraction of energy use needed for city driving anyway. I'm only hopeful in the known-technology level, not ignoring the fact that probably overall it'll cost more than now taking the costs people now expect for new cars.
Still I admit when transportation and electicity intersect more, there'll be an increase in electricity rates, and a strain on that system, and some areas might be able to grow electricity fast enough to keep up. AND worse, coal is still cheapest when ignoring environmental costs.
My optimism lasts on a hope that energy prices will keep going up sooner than later and this will force conservation and restructuring and technology to deal with it.
If energy was our ONLY coming crisis, I'd say we'd have a fair shot to get through it. But when you add numerous parallel crises - global warming - natural disasters intensified by climate change - political instability due to high costs - unsustainable debt, the whole world economy is a house of cards ready to fall - so back to pessimism!
So I'll be hopeful for Bush's little steps, but personally I'll just keep trying to pay my debt down (mortgage) sooner than later, and count my blessings as I have many.
Necessity is the mother of invention and we have a motherlode to face!
posted by Ares Olympus at 12:01 AM
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