2018?
Happy 50th birthday to me! What will the world look like in 12 years?
12 years is FAR beyond my imagination for what my personal life will be like, although I admit that 12 years ago (1994) doesn't seem so incredibly far away looking backwards.
On the other hand, I didn't first try email until December 1997. Strangely I made my first webpage in August 1997 from an HTMl book I got from the library and I gave a floppy disk to my dad and he uploaded it. But that was barely over 8 years ago. First blog in November 2002. First Wikipedia edits in April 2004.
Growing up with the microcomputer era really has defined my personal and career paths - back to my Vic-20 computer in 1981, and even back to Electronic football games maybe around 1978.
The company I work for started in 1981, an engineering consulting company that expanded into software sales on the IBM PC, and has expanded in ambition with computer power, even if we're still not too much bigger in staff - 30-50 people depending on how many branch offices you count.
When I first did some contract programming in 1992, I had graduated from college and thought perhaps the business world was corrupt, destroying the world for fun and profit and all that, but I did need some money, and I lived on from $2500-$12000 per year from 1992 to 1997. Well, I think I made $7500 one ambitious year in college as well, but didn't work much in college either hourwise, except in the summer.
When I took a full-time position in 1998, I decided to ask for an "income reduction" in exchange for the company making voluntary donations, and did that until 2002 - a pretty cool trick - I could take my "standard deduction" and give tax free to charity. But that changed in 2003 when I got greedy and bought a house for a section-8 friend to live in and pay me rent. PLUS I borrowed money against my inherited house to buy out my sister's share since she got married. So suddenly I was sitting with TWO mortgages!
Well, two ARM (Adjustable rate mortgages) as well because again I was greedy, thinking a lower rate now would encourage me to pay more extra principle even if rates increased later, I'd be better off. Well, if things go well, I could pay off the remainder of mortgage in two years (2008), and the rental property morgage in 2012 with luck. Of course I'll be under a 4 year period of my adjustable rate, and if it hit the maximum of 10.75%, I might be unhappy! At first I though the ARM was a "fair" idea, indexing my rate with inflation, but now I wonder if it isn't more of a "scam" to tease people with low rates and then make up the difference later with much higher rates. I just don't understand why people now have 5.5% 30-year-FIXED rates, while my ARM rate now, if I was now adjusting, would be around 6.5%. Why would anyone "sell" a FIXED rate mortgage so low since there seems a large risk inflation can wreck the interest!
Anyway I'lll stick it out since things seem to be going well. Maybe I'm foolish just to try to get out of debt? Maybe there's better investments that can reduce my cost of living later, like better insulation, new windows, PV cells on the roof, passive solar, or whatever. I think about it, but I imagine I save more in the long run to get rid of the mortgage interest ... now below $10k/year, but that's still a lot of money to throw away.
Well, so now I'm in the GREEDY world of a property owner who must exploit the economy to get out of debt so I can be RICH someday. I don't know if I could be rich, or if I want to be rich, but of course money is responsibility and someone has to have it and be responsible with it, so if somehow I get to help, I'll gravely accept this.
But with this peak-oil thing, who can say what is coming around the corner? I'm willing to accept the FEAR-side that things will hit the fan sooner than later, and of course in the long run we're better off falling sooner, since every delay merely increases the height of our eventual freefall. But I want CONTROL too. Maybe paying off my mortgage isn't the most important thing on the world agenda, but I feel responsible for that, and I don't want the economy (or my JOB) collapsing before I finish my responsibility!
A funny perspective - a 6 year "freedom day" with luck, half-way along my 12 year journey towards 50, and the economy might knock it all down against my will.
I must admit I just don't get how the economy keeps running on debt. Something has to give, right? I accept cheap energy via fossil fuels is the primary source, and my engineering company runs on those challenges to continually exploit natural resources as efficiently as possible.
It really seems true that Bush and the republican leadership are dead-set on bankrupting our nation, selling off every possible resource as fast as possible. Apparently they've got their own "independent means" when the shit hits the fan. Maybe they're scared too, and just trying to steal as much wealth as they can while the getting is still good?
I can say my greed is only about "security", but everyone could say that since security is a feeling and subjective and there's always one more level within reach as means increase.
I say I can't see past 2012 because I can't see past getting out of debt. It's like I'm running a race, and what's the use of looking out past the finish line when there's so many miles and challenges before that?
I suppose "peak oil" is a similar blindness. I remember someone admiring the U.S.S.R. government for their 50 year plan, or was that 500?! Anyway somehow they were superior because they envisioned where they wanted to be in 50 years while America is concerned about the next quarter's profits. I lean towards thinking 50 year plans are limited since we don't know what energy, resources, and technology will be available. Still, dreaming doesn't hurt because then you're ready to jump when opportunity comes.
I sort of think "paying down the mortgage" as "preparing to jump". Sounds silly, but debt is a form of slavery. At least my debt can be liquidated (by selling my house), so at least I shouldn't need to be as depressed by it, but it does tie up money resources. When my mortgage is paid off, I can go back to living on $6-12k/year perhaps and then see what else I can do from that.
I could imagine education or travel or some other use for money and perhaps now is the time for such things, but since I can make good money now, why not take it a while longer?
At least I feel good to be car-free now for 15 months - pretty impressive. Gasoline prices don't hurt me directly, not that gas prices would hurt my driving needs even if I did have a car. Even $10/gallon gas would be very useful to me at times.
It is curious to see long long oil prices can stay "high" without greatly affecting the costs of everything and general inflation. It seems like businesses are not fully accounting for energy inflation for increasing the prices of goods and serivices.
I kind of think a goodd thought experiment is to just to imagine tomorrow EVERYTHING cost twice as much as today. Of course few would be able to adjust to that, but it gives some perspective for deciding what can be cut back. I must believe inflation will hit HARD in the coming 6 years at least. The funny thing is inflation HELPS people in debt and HURTS people with savings, but my "debt" is only lowered if my salary is increased, and I expect a good number of people will have LOWER salaries along with higher costs in economic turbulent times.
I look forward to seeing how things turn out in the next 12 years. I PREDICT it won't be pretty, and easy to imagine quite harsh, hyper-inflation, war, famine, who knows?
I suppose my BIG concern would be for a Soviet-style collapse - where the government loses control and causes high inflation and high unemployment and those with means will fill in the power vacuums with their own black-market activities and we could get a third-world style bribe for services world. I think you need MANY strong bold people WITH MEANS to oppose this outcome. Centralizing power in face of emergencies is natural, and once it is centralized, it can be SOLD off to money interests quite easily.
The only GOOD I can see is efforts for "relocalization" will finally have their day in the sunlight to compete for attention, and can solve many problems that will be otherwise ignored.
If I come out ALIVE and HEALTHY by 2018, wealth or not, I'll consider myself fortunate!
Happy birthday!
12 years is FAR beyond my imagination for what my personal life will be like, although I admit that 12 years ago (1994) doesn't seem so incredibly far away looking backwards.
On the other hand, I didn't first try email until December 1997. Strangely I made my first webpage in August 1997 from an HTMl book I got from the library and I gave a floppy disk to my dad and he uploaded it. But that was barely over 8 years ago. First blog in November 2002. First Wikipedia edits in April 2004.
Growing up with the microcomputer era really has defined my personal and career paths - back to my Vic-20 computer in 1981, and even back to Electronic football games maybe around 1978.
The company I work for started in 1981, an engineering consulting company that expanded into software sales on the IBM PC, and has expanded in ambition with computer power, even if we're still not too much bigger in staff - 30-50 people depending on how many branch offices you count.
When I first did some contract programming in 1992, I had graduated from college and thought perhaps the business world was corrupt, destroying the world for fun and profit and all that, but I did need some money, and I lived on from $2500-$12000 per year from 1992 to 1997. Well, I think I made $7500 one ambitious year in college as well, but didn't work much in college either hourwise, except in the summer.
When I took a full-time position in 1998, I decided to ask for an "income reduction" in exchange for the company making voluntary donations, and did that until 2002 - a pretty cool trick - I could take my "standard deduction" and give tax free to charity. But that changed in 2003 when I got greedy and bought a house for a section-8 friend to live in and pay me rent. PLUS I borrowed money against my inherited house to buy out my sister's share since she got married. So suddenly I was sitting with TWO mortgages!
Well, two ARM (Adjustable rate mortgages) as well because again I was greedy, thinking a lower rate now would encourage me to pay more extra principle even if rates increased later, I'd be better off. Well, if things go well, I could pay off the remainder of mortgage in two years (2008), and the rental property morgage in 2012 with luck. Of course I'll be under a 4 year period of my adjustable rate, and if it hit the maximum of 10.75%, I might be unhappy! At first I though the ARM was a "fair" idea, indexing my rate with inflation, but now I wonder if it isn't more of a "scam" to tease people with low rates and then make up the difference later with much higher rates. I just don't understand why people now have 5.5% 30-year-FIXED rates, while my ARM rate now, if I was now adjusting, would be around 6.5%. Why would anyone "sell" a FIXED rate mortgage so low since there seems a large risk inflation can wreck the interest!
Anyway I'lll stick it out since things seem to be going well. Maybe I'm foolish just to try to get out of debt? Maybe there's better investments that can reduce my cost of living later, like better insulation, new windows, PV cells on the roof, passive solar, or whatever. I think about it, but I imagine I save more in the long run to get rid of the mortgage interest ... now below $10k/year, but that's still a lot of money to throw away.
Well, so now I'm in the GREEDY world of a property owner who must exploit the economy to get out of debt so I can be RICH someday. I don't know if I could be rich, or if I want to be rich, but of course money is responsibility and someone has to have it and be responsible with it, so if somehow I get to help, I'll gravely accept this.
But with this peak-oil thing, who can say what is coming around the corner? I'm willing to accept the FEAR-side that things will hit the fan sooner than later, and of course in the long run we're better off falling sooner, since every delay merely increases the height of our eventual freefall. But I want CONTROL too. Maybe paying off my mortgage isn't the most important thing on the world agenda, but I feel responsible for that, and I don't want the economy (or my JOB) collapsing before I finish my responsibility!
A funny perspective - a 6 year "freedom day" with luck, half-way along my 12 year journey towards 50, and the economy might knock it all down against my will.
I must admit I just don't get how the economy keeps running on debt. Something has to give, right? I accept cheap energy via fossil fuels is the primary source, and my engineering company runs on those challenges to continually exploit natural resources as efficiently as possible.
It really seems true that Bush and the republican leadership are dead-set on bankrupting our nation, selling off every possible resource as fast as possible. Apparently they've got their own "independent means" when the shit hits the fan. Maybe they're scared too, and just trying to steal as much wealth as they can while the getting is still good?
I can say my greed is only about "security", but everyone could say that since security is a feeling and subjective and there's always one more level within reach as means increase.
I say I can't see past 2012 because I can't see past getting out of debt. It's like I'm running a race, and what's the use of looking out past the finish line when there's so many miles and challenges before that?
I suppose "peak oil" is a similar blindness. I remember someone admiring the U.S.S.R. government for their 50 year plan, or was that 500?! Anyway somehow they were superior because they envisioned where they wanted to be in 50 years while America is concerned about the next quarter's profits. I lean towards thinking 50 year plans are limited since we don't know what energy, resources, and technology will be available. Still, dreaming doesn't hurt because then you're ready to jump when opportunity comes.
I sort of think "paying down the mortgage" as "preparing to jump". Sounds silly, but debt is a form of slavery. At least my debt can be liquidated (by selling my house), so at least I shouldn't need to be as depressed by it, but it does tie up money resources. When my mortgage is paid off, I can go back to living on $6-12k/year perhaps and then see what else I can do from that.
I could imagine education or travel or some other use for money and perhaps now is the time for such things, but since I can make good money now, why not take it a while longer?
At least I feel good to be car-free now for 15 months - pretty impressive. Gasoline prices don't hurt me directly, not that gas prices would hurt my driving needs even if I did have a car. Even $10/gallon gas would be very useful to me at times.
It is curious to see long long oil prices can stay "high" without greatly affecting the costs of everything and general inflation. It seems like businesses are not fully accounting for energy inflation for increasing the prices of goods and serivices.
I kind of think a goodd thought experiment is to just to imagine tomorrow EVERYTHING cost twice as much as today. Of course few would be able to adjust to that, but it gives some perspective for deciding what can be cut back. I must believe inflation will hit HARD in the coming 6 years at least. The funny thing is inflation HELPS people in debt and HURTS people with savings, but my "debt" is only lowered if my salary is increased, and I expect a good number of people will have LOWER salaries along with higher costs in economic turbulent times.
I look forward to seeing how things turn out in the next 12 years. I PREDICT it won't be pretty, and easy to imagine quite harsh, hyper-inflation, war, famine, who knows?
I suppose my BIG concern would be for a Soviet-style collapse - where the government loses control and causes high inflation and high unemployment and those with means will fill in the power vacuums with their own black-market activities and we could get a third-world style bribe for services world. I think you need MANY strong bold people WITH MEANS to oppose this outcome. Centralizing power in face of emergencies is natural, and once it is centralized, it can be SOLD off to money interests quite easily.
The only GOOD I can see is efforts for "relocalization" will finally have their day in the sunlight to compete for attention, and can solve many problems that will be otherwise ignored.
If I come out ALIVE and HEALTHY by 2018, wealth or not, I'll consider myself fortunate!
Happy birthday!
posted by Ares Olympus at 4:38 PM
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