Morning in America or is it two mornings?

I was very curious in what would happen in this midterm election, knowing historically the party opposite the president often has a good midterm election, even a "wave", especially when the president's party is also in the majority. And despite historic lower voter turn out for democrats, this year followed the pattern. There was a "blue wave", even if partly offset by a smaller "red wave" - there was historic high midterm turnout for both parties, and we can say that's good for democracy, although bad if the majority of voters on all sides are voting against the opposition rather than for their candidates. My state of Minnesota had record high voter turnout, and highest in the nation at 65%. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-midterms-in-4-charts And this and included a 5-6% vote for TWO marijuana parties for state level office, so we'll have two major parties now for legalizing marijuana, and the governor winner, Tim Walz also supports legalization. So maybe its finally time for decriminalization, whatever steps follow. I'm not interested in weed myself, and wouldn't choose to live with a smoker of any sort, I also don't think policing it is a good use of law enforcement time or attention, and it ends up being enforced more against lower class people and minorities than middle class people and whites. So its time, whatever the price, we should discourage marijuana by means of persuasion, not fear of fines and punishment. So maybe we have 3 mornings in America, with the pro-weed movement seeing the light, and a critical mass is close. And it will likely be a few election cycles to get change as far as proponents want, but you have to imagine the destination is regulation and freedom similar to tobacco. The only question is how much in taxes can be collected by regulated marijuana products, and what those taxes can do to keep abuse from increasing with this new freedom. And things are not done yet, with at least two recounts in Florida, and Democrats up 34 seats, with 10 seats left to be determined, so much smaller than the 63 seat gain by the republicans in 2010, 54 seats in 1994, but bigger than the 31 seat gain by the democrats in 2006. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018 I don't know if the Democrats new House majority should be used to impeach Trump. The problem with Trump is that he's largely an open book, and his supporters largely know the same things everyone knows about him, and they don't care, and nearly 49 million people voted Republican in 2018, so they are the ones who have to change their opinion on Trump, and that won't happen because they democrats fight harder. Perhaps the Mueller will raise "high crimes" by Trump, but so far it looks like his best defense is that everyone knows his wealth came by being a greedy bastard, and America still loves greedy bastards, as long as they're entertaining. And we're all being properly entertained, and republicans get their tax cuts and deregulation, so until the economy crashes on new debt, everyone can just try to fight harder for their share in the expanding debt pie. I don't believe its Morning in America, but I don't know what future we're entering. I see technology is doing amazing things. We're literally exploring new worlds across the solar system and running robots on Mars, and SpaceX promises we'll find a way to exploit space travel for profits beyond just telecommunications, but it soon will become a place businesses go, not just governments trying to show their superiority. And there's so many billionaires, they can burn their money at a maximum rate, and they may be best to do that, before the debt bubble comes crashing down. But I see we do more and more by using more and more one-time resources, and fossil fuels are not sufficient to make 7.5 billion people do what 300 million Americans do now, much less in 80 years with 12 billion aspiring people. I can have some hope that alternative energy can do more and more, but I have more hope if we can live on less energy than we need now, and our interconnected world, hasn't clearly reduced our energy consumption. So my fears won't be relieved until we really can say "we no longer need fossil fuels", while I expect we'll reduce consumption because of a depression than by choice. So my projections stay along with James Howard Kunstler's long emergency - energy crises are coming, ecological crises are coming, and debt crises are coming, and they're all related, and debt is not a sign of our great success, but the last grasping for a future that will never come. When energy growth stops, the economy stops. Debt is the offset, and we're making a bet that has no plan B when it fails. I don't know if democracy can survive decline, and people like Trump, people worse that Trump will rise and do terrible things. And Trump is just showing the way to all.

A cold shower

One of the pleasures of summer time is cold showers. Of course you can take a cold shower anytime, and athletes who want to recover faster are encouraged to not only take a cold shower, but actually sit in an ice bath for as long as they can handle it. But in the summer after a run in the sun, like I did this morning, at least there's a possibility of looking forward to the shocking feeling of cold water.

And besides, tap water is much warmer in Minnesota summers as winters, well checking right now I find it 68F, compared to probably lower 40s F in the winter, and coincidentally similar to Lake Superior swimming which can easily be 45F even in July, while can also rise to 75F, perhaps by a fortunate series of sunny days, followed by some waves that push all the surface warm water to the shore? 40-48F can feel "burning cold", while 65-75F water is merely shocking. And don't ask about water below 40F. It really does feel like hundreds of knifes digging into your body, or at least how you might imagine that might feel. But after the shock, perhaps freezing to death in cold water is not a bad way to die, and because of the cold there's a chance you can be resuscitated after much longer than other conditions.

Anyway, is cold water pleasurable at all? It's an open question to be sure, and maybe its best to call it "safe pain" since you're not going to hurt yourself by intentionally submerging or showering yourself in cold water. And the experience even helps you question the nature of pain. That is to say, pain clearly isn't a clear signal of harm, only of danger, so if you can understand the nature of the pain you're experiencing you can work with that, manage that, and not have to simply retreat from it.

My cold shower this morning pulled me back to one memory where I was not quite a willing participant in a cold shower, just about 20 years ago April, at a ManKind Project weekend retreat, Friday evening until Sunday morning. So it was Saturday morning and they woke us all up very early and tell us we all have to take showers, and there's no hot water, and its early April so the water temperature is probably close to 50F, and we also just slept in an unheated building so we're already pretty cold.

And there was just one shower for perhaps 30 men, and we're all waiting around for our turn, and we each get 30 seconds, or I think they said at least 30 seconds, so the leaders were trying to challenge us. And as male bonding experiences tend to go, some most extroverted men decide its a good idea to chant a count down for each shower, perhaps as a form of encouragement, but to me it didn't seem like encouragement, rather badgering. I was resentful by the requirement, but I wasn't ready to say no to the expectation, so when my turn came, I turned on the water, and tried to stay as calm as possible while lathering the soap and cleaning around the important places to shower, and it felt painful and I was angry inside, but determined to not let my anger show. I neither participated in the chanting or discouraged it. I tried to put myself above it, to show they couldn't hurt me, even if that's not what they were trying to do. I was an individual, and I made my own decisions, and I wasn't going to let anyone else's energy tell me what I should or shouldn't do. Anyway, the 30 seconds ended quick enough, and I felt I had done a reasonable job in making the shower serve its practical purpose, no more or less. I felt cold, but it wasn't long enough to really get shivering cold, and I got my towel and dried off and got dressed.

I could see the purpose of the weekend was in part to bring men together in a common spirit, and parts of it were like boot camp where they can do things in ways that try to tear down your individuality and then rebuild you as a team. I experienced some of that, but I feel like at every step, I was making a choice how I wanted to participate (and I did choose to attend and paid money to do it), and I never got sufficiently pushed that I needed to say no, although there were many potential ways I might have resisted. I even remember on the Friday night, I considered walking home, at least as a fantasy, knowing it was something over 40 miles, and it would take me all night and into the morning to get home, and the most I walked was 35 miles a couple times, but I imagined I could do that if I chose. It seemed to be my way of coping, to feel in control, that I was master of this situation, and I didn't need anyone else to tell me what I could or couldn't do.

If I wonder what other reactions I might have given to the compulsory cold showers and chanting, I know what I felt. One voice in me thought yelling at the men who were chanting to stop and being willing to back up my conviction with threat of force, and not caring if I lose any fight, at least they would know my hatred. Of course it was fantasy and we were all there voluntarily, and most men would be confused by my hatred. I do see of course my hatred was some sort of projection, not personally directed toward them, but perhaps my fear of pain or discomfort or being seen in pain or discomfort and fear that I will expose myself, my weakness. So in that regard my neutral exterior was my way of expressing contempt. You people are so insignificant to me that I can ignore you whatever you do. You are invisible to me, without personhood. That's a sort of power one can take against bullies, even if they don't know they're bullies. And if they're purposely "trolling" to get a reaction out of people, then refusing to react is a way to resist.

And of course all of this is fantasies in my own mind, and I can go back to the cold water, which perhaps a similar sort of enemy, and I can wonder what's the best way to respond to shocking cold? Is it better to scream in pain and exaggerate its effects? Or maybe like in Professional wrestling, its performance, so you start by exaggerating the pain, while you, as the hero, slowly regain your composure and show a look of rage at your rival until he gets fear in his eyes and knows you're not really defeated and he's the one who is in trouble. Or to do what I did, and not react outwardly at all as I practice internal emotional control, like in the movie Kung Fu where the main character gets his dragon tattoos by carrying a pot full of hot coals with his forearms, perfectly managing the pain, knowing its duration, and putting all his energy into completing his task, knowing the scars will heal, and the trust in your own mastery of pain will last a lifetime.

Being willing to accept short term pain of any sort, including psychological pain of a peer group, I'm sure emotional mastery is the best lesson. But for thought experiments, you can try them all and see what happens, and if you're not sure, you can try in real life and see. And even if you never willingly choose a certain situation, it may come up anyway, and your thought experiment will be ready to be tested, and you can compare how things went, how fears diverged from reality.

A thought experiment that is hardest for me is to imagine being the bully, being the man who chooses to chant while another man takes a cold shower, and feel that excitement of being life, and being momentarily fearless, and using group identity itself to moderate fear, so far I'd say I'd never want to be that person at all, but perhaps that also why I'd not choose to be a parent. Because a parent sometimes needs to step back and watch their child in pain, and know that child must find his own way through, and sometimes that way through is messy and even destructive to self or others. Perhaps I could have been a dad and just said "Be your own self, and you can't be a victim unless you choose to see yourself that way. Remember people who are goading you into reacting are in pain too, and doing the best they can. You can defend yourself. You can say no any time you need to, and use force to defend that. But if you don't need to say no, you'll learn things, and if you're bolder than me, you'll learn things I never learned. But just don't get bitter. Just think of the cold shower, you can choose it, and it won't ultimately hurt you, even if it feels like a shock. And you can say stop whenever you want." Maybe dads can say things like that?

Entering a period of consequences...

"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…" - Winston Churchill

I'd probably disagree with 75% of Churchill's politics, but as much because he saw a world people don't want to see. He said what he saw, and opened eyes, and when the dark days of war came, he rallied the people to their common defense.

I see in myself an anger at a world I think must fail sooner or later, and yet I participate in madness, only held "above it", by some tokens of resistance, symbols of independence that really do little to make me more independent.

On the issues of Energy, Environment, and Economics, I do a lot of little things
1. Reduce, reuse, recycle. I try to avoid even getting to recycling for my needs, shopping at a food coop, buying bulk. I even carry recycling home from work.
2. I bicycle to work, don't own a car.
3. When I needed a new furnace, I upgraded to a 94% efficient model.
4. I buy clothes largely from thrift stores. I generally buy very little, except good books, which I consider long term investments.
5. I'm fortunate to have a good job, earning more than I need, and I use surplus income to pay down debt. Plus I refinanced to a fixed-rate mortgage, so I could pay off my mortgage in a bit over 3 years if I was devoted and lucky.

Lots of good things, but I'm also largely in a state of denial, a state of paralysis for big changes with an uncertain future. I figure holding my job is a priority at least while I have debt, a no brainer, but there might be more dramatic decisions, like leaving my job now would provide a 5-year company stock buy down, and living expenses for 5 years, but that's IF there was opportunity now that closes later.

I see the biggest issue for me is a wish for security. I'll chose the security of small returns even if they don't match inflation. I'll choose the security of tinkering around safe and harmless Wikipedia than ask myself what my time is really worth. I mean that in the sense of service. My work on Wikipedia is service-oriented, on knowledge and wonder, but it is endless and when I'm afraid of the world, I can stay on the safe side forever, and let the world fall apart!

AND even ignoring the desperation of that claim, it's not the world that needs me. My little contribution won't change destiny of humanity. We'll fall or not whatever I do. So the REAL issue is what is MY LIFE for?

That question a reversal from my title and introduction. Still there is a needed relationship here. In good times, people can be mindless-slobs wandering around picking their nose and obvious. We can assume such people will eventually get bored and think more deeply, but in good times, that's their choice to throw away their lives! But in harder times, bad behavior comes back to bite, and throw people into worse situations, and hurt other people for their obvliousness, and self-pity too!

And I am in such a place myself, cowarded by fear, soothed by distraction. I'd have to call my state depression, since even the smallest of practical things that would move me forward seem a drag. Partly that means not listening to feelings BEFORE trying to do something! But also just seems like a long climb back to reality.

It's nice to try to see the bigger picture, to have bigger goals, but they don't mean anything until my life is in a better place, where all the basics are being done.

So the consequences are here, and time to clean house. A boring conclusion, but I know nothing else is meaningful otherwise.

BUT, my MAIN lesson here, is to see there are things now that I might want to DROP even if they serve some purpose, if they are burden helping to hold me down.

TEOTWAWKI?

I'm reading "The long decline" by John Greer.
An older essay is here:
http://www.oilcrisis.com/whatToDo/decline.htm

For me it has always been a certainty that an unsustainable economy, an unsustainable dependence upon fossil fuels to run our economy will run our economy into ruin. That's simple trends, but what will it look like?

Seeing the financial debt that is being tacked onto our unsustainable economy shows me one way this will occur. Banking bailouts and government borrowing to keep our economy going is horrid, but shows perhaps how illusionary wealth is destroyed.

Greer's theory of "Catabolic collapse" suggests how we get from where we are to where we need to be - using a lot less energy and resources than we're used to. He says crises knock us down, pruning out the most wasteful aspects of the economy until we find a new temporary equilibrium at a lower overall standard of living.

I have to imagine what's happening now is a part of that process, even if you can blame greed and excess of capitalism itself (and government policy too as you like), it's all sliding along into a lower overall "real economy" hidden behind our illusionary wealth.

Economic contraction is an interesting effect, as observed objectively, without personal costs. As an environmentalist, I think we need to use less fossil fuels, both for pollution effects, and depletion effects. If it wasn't for the inefficencies of restructuring a failing economy, we'd still be trying to shoot the moon for more energy consumption.

I took a trip to Mexico a year ago, and flying back I realized how easy it would be to "get used" the idea that flying thousands of miles in a few hours was normal. Today I ran a race with a friend from Colorado, and he invited me to visit him there. I imagined I could do it in a 3-4 day weekend! I'm sure it would be a memorable trip, hiking in the mountains and all! At the moment I could afford it quite well, so if I decide on price, perhaps I would go!

Perhaps, if I do, it'll be the last fight I'll ever take. Perhaps I really could appreciate this age of "miracles and wonders" that allows this travel. I've been in Colorado once before, a 10-day road trip in 1992. I sort of prefer that sort of trip, and think a 3-day weekend is rather extravagant, not enough time to really relax and explore and everything!

So, anyway, as long as a majority of people think air travel for vacation is "normal", and commuting an hour a day by car is "normal", we live in a world that I don't believe can exist in the future, or at least the minority that will live this way must decline.

That's my biggest question - if the decline happens by holding 1% on the top at their level of consumption, and the middle class slide away into relative poverty. I think whatever level people are at, wealth comes from spending less than you earn, but spending so easily becomes "nonnegociable", so it's all scary to me.

If you could jump forward 20 years you might be horrified to see what life is like for most people, but to them it'll be normal. That's the power and weakness of perspective. The future looks scary for the shock of change.

I think of seeing movies about the primitive tribes, doing their dances around the fire, and all. It was so foreign, I couldn't imagine being a part. But if I look at my life now, perhaps it is shocking from the outside, my isolation and dependence upon a crazy economy for it all.

And within all these "adjustments", there's room for new opportunity as well, as we have choices that move us in the right direction, or avoid making the hard choices.

The End Of The World As We Know It?

Eventually, but the world we know isn't normal!

Signifying nothing

I must be quick since I have work that's needed, but just curious how life OUGHT to be lived, you know, what really matters? Given a limited amount of time, how should it be spent in a way that is most fulfilling, most useful.

One vital example is something called a "social life", and I don't play that game well. I don't keep up with everything going on around me, and in fact, as much as not, if I try to expand my circle of awareness too much, I start to panic.

I think of Shakespeare's quote in McBeth:
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

All the little dramas we all experience in our little lives seem so important, at least in that moment. We want our outrage recognized as just and good. We want our suffering known as heroic and tragic. We want above all to signify for something.

It's much easier to judge the illusions of others, and to want to run away from their false dramas. But at least it reminds why we must all look in the mirror and see what drives us as well.

Motto for 2009 "no more crybabies!"

Love him, hate him, or dimiss him, Kunstler is one-of-a-kind, always able to position himself where he wants to be, judging the stupidity of our culture mercilessly.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/12/forecast-for-2009.html

I don't have a clear view for 2009, and accept whatever President Obama wants or does, whatever Congress wants or does, whatever the American people want or do, we're in a pickle which may or may not lead us, fast or slow into a very dark place not seen by Americans for a long time, and perhaps ever, if things really fall as far as they seem to be able to fall.

So far, I've played my hand about as well as I could, at least mixing an interesting life without great debt besides a mortgage, and using surplus income, and with an ARM-mortgage now adjusting mildly, perhaps future less mildly, up $10k in saved interest over 5 years, and a refinancing option openning up, I feel very fortunate, even if I fail on my most optimistic plan to pay off my mortgage in 3 years. Having a 30-year fixed-rate would be the final puzzle piece, one step short of being debt-free, but means I can choose what's my best investment - reducing debt, investing to reduce expenses, or pure altuistic philantropy surrounded by a world of need greater than my own. Well, still carried by the assuming I can keep a job with something like my income now. No guarantees there I know, but I could live on 1/4 my income if I had to, something most people can't imagine. I can live without a car, as I have now for 3 years. I can grow a bit of my own food, and know how to conserve whatever resources are around me.

It's really not real to me, to imagine the possibility everything we know might be lost. My pessimism is vast, but historical success makes me think somehow senseless things can go on forever.

I like Kunster's 2009 motto "No more crybabies". I don't like to judge people, and I don't like to think about how many people are much more adversely affected by circumstances than me. But I don't think Kunstler is being critical of weakness, just reflecting that it isn't enough any more. There's no one to save us individually or collectively but ourselves. All the support systems that allow mistake after mistake to repeat indefinitely may soon evaporate and we'll be left with whatever we're left with, which is primarily our own sense of confidence to act in an uncertain world, to act wisely to protect our own needs, and to widen that protections as we each are capable, so our communities can be collectively stronger to handle the messiness of collapse.

It's funny my only connective spirit I have with the republicans is the idea of self-suffiency and a recognition of the limits of "programs" and "policy" to protect individuals. Responsibility and honest assessment of one's own resources and needs and what it costs to use those resources wisely, that's what will get us through what's coming. It's all nice to have "universal rights", but they always must break down without "universal responsibility".

I hate all the messiness of individual freedom, and self-destructive impulses within all of us. I see them most within myself, apathy to treat my time as something important. I'm sure it's a balancing point. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. And all play and no work makes Jack a child and a fool. In between, real people make compromises, facing opportunity with ambition and dreams, and when times are good they overreach, and suffer for it.

I keep my life small, but I overreach also. I see a life that will end someday. I don't even see a purpose for my life, except exploring a few interesting ideas, and having enough to share with others close to me. Even so, I live in an expansive universe of possibilities, and lament the day I can not play as much. I'm spoiled as they can get, and I know there's a grindstone I could follow a little closer, just in case I fall short of what's "my fair share", and what I'll need in the future.

Ultimately my biggest failing might be I don't want the responsibility of a failing society on my shoulders. I wish happily for a future I could believe in, but just a wish, I don't easily accept my responsibility to help create that future. Maybe it's not really my place to lead. I don't have a vision for the future. I think we're going to fall, and maybe there's really nothing to be done, but stay prepared, keep my needs small, and help clean up my corner of the world as things fall. I don't know what more I can do. I know I could try harder than I do.

Happy 2009, truly I have no wish for the world but to see itself rightly, neither blinded by false light or false darkness, but somewhere between...

Line in the sand - credit limit!

I seem to be periodically shocked when I hear yet another friend, another seemingly intelligent and rational friend, is sitting half over their head in credit card debt, another friend hit by 28% interest rates for 6 months for being late on ONE payment.

I think of my own emotional place, a fear of throwing money away senseless, a fear of being taken advantage of by evil greedy companies looking to use my well-being as their nest-egg onto easy street. I'm perhaps as vulnerable as anyone into looking for a good deal, one too good to be true.

What's not to like about a credit card? You spend money on things you need. You don't have to pay the bill until a month later, an interest-free 30 day loan! Plus, many cards have "cash back" percentage! AND amazingly, just paying your bill every month, you accumulate a "credit history" which allows you to borrow bigger money later in a home mortgage! It looks like a win-win-win-win offer!

Well, maybe always there's a dark side, and I pretend it doesn't exist. I see no reason to NOT pay off a credit card each month.

SURE, when I've seen crazy offers like 6-months 0% interest, I think, HEY, why don't I write a $5000 check to my mortgage, spend 6 months paying it off, and save money on my mortgage interest? Well, admittingly, even if there's no fees at all, it's only $125 savings, not really worth it to me.

Anyway, I try to imagine conditions where I'd appreciate the convenience of holding a balance on my credit card, perhaps to improve my short term cash flow - my gosh(!) property tax month can be harsh! I mean sure, I live by savings, but how much cushion do I need? And it's not like the savings account 0.5% interest rates are worth anything. So why not use a CC instead of a surplus savings? It works out to the same thing, assuming I can pay off the balance within a few months anyway.

So I scheme and wonder, and ultimately, coming from a place of financial strength, think "games" aren't worth my time or energy. So I might keep a bit lower savings knowing I could use a CC for unexpected expenses, I try to adjust my savings to cover everything knowable PLUS a bit more to cover the unknown.

Indeed, I'm basically in a place of surplus income. I've been self-employed, lived entirely off savings between projects, and had to be careful, but with a regualr job, I simply make more than I need, so I just have to decide what to do with it. For now I put all surplus into my mortgage, so my extra principle payments are adjusted to keep a healthy savings, and nothing else. If I have unexpected expenses, I reduce (or halt) my extra principle payments. A good life!

So I admit it is perhaps impossible for me to understand "the average person" who has designed a life that demands 101% of their income to make ends meet, and the fear of what to do when unexpected expenses come up. SO I forgive their apparent foolishness in holding credit card balances and throwing money away senselessly.

But it seems I must expand my opinions somewhat. Obviously there's a difference between "temporary strategic borrowing" and an "unviable lifestyle". I accept there's a continuum of compromises in these limits. But I wondered, can a line be drawn?

I ask BECAUSE credit card companies will NOT draw this line for YOU. Or I should say they draw the line for THEM. They'll happily keep raising your credit limit as you hold larger balances and keep up minimum payments. Plus if you get a few credit cards, you can keep expanding your credit line for YEARS and YEARS! You can fall down the slippery slope of unviability so slowly that you never see the point of no return, where you ought to admit there's no way in hell you're going to pay off this debt.

So, I see two issues (1) People who hold CC debt ought to have a PLAN to clear the debt within a relatively small period of time, like 6 months (good) to 5 years (horrid!) and (2) People who have a large CC debt and previously never set their own limit, must find one they like AND if there is no viable payback period, they should consider bankruptsy.

I don't know anything really about bankruptsy law. I heard it got tougher to be able to cancel all debts, that "ability to pay" can be considered. Personally I think bankrupsy itself is hard enough so CC debt should offer "NO PROTECTION" to CC companies at all.

I MEAN, if CC companies have bankruptsy protection, what incentive do they have to discourage excessive debt, to hold the line on a responsible credit limit and help people get out of debt? NONE AT ALL!

So, I don't know about laws, just common sense. AND if I had a debt that I could NOT pay off within 5 years AND they were playing games with my interest rate, I'd throw it back in their face and declare bankrupsy!

SO, in summary, I don't know what a "credit limit" should be, but I think it should be defined more as a "payback period" than amount. How much discretionary income do you have each month? If you take HALF of that, how fast can you pay off your CC debt? If it's over 6 months, you have a PROBLEM!

It really hurts me to see others throwing away their time and money. I know first hand that "family" help is harder in the short term, but if done well is FAR superior to depending on greedy bastard banks.

It's all scary to me. I wish we could rein in those cc bastards! Mass-bankruptsy is the only tool I know that can help them see the light. I hope it's possible!